As Europe's airspace reopened and weary passengers boarded long-delayed flights home, airline executives pressed for government compensation to cover the industry's massive losses.
Eurocontrol, Europe's air safety authority, said they expected air traffic to be "almost 100 percent" on Thursday, estimating that 75 percent of the 28,000 flights normally scheduled Wednesday had flown.
All Europe's main air hubs were up and running Wednesday and experts in Iceland said the Eyjafjjoell volcano had lost most of its intensity.
But a week after a volcanic eruption in Iceland caused the worst disruption to aviation since World War II, airline bosses were counting their losses -- and wanted to know who would foot the bill.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) put the overall cost to the airline industry at 1.7 billion dollars (1.3 billion euros): at its peak, said IATA, the crisis was costing 400 million dollars a day.
"For an industry that lost 9.4 billion dollars last year and was forecast to lose a further 2.8 billion dollars in 2010, this crisis is devastating," said IATA chief Giovanni Bisignani in Berlin.
"Airspace was being closed based on theoretical models, not on facts."
Now governments needed to look at how to compensate the airlines, he said.
British Airways chief executive Willie Walsh had already branded the ban unnecessary, and British opposition leader David Cameron called for a public inquiry into the government's handling of the crisis.
Conservative leader Cameron, who is locked in an election battle with Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown, said there had been "muddle and confusion" in the government over the crisis.
But as the recriminations flew, one vulcanologist advising the United Nations said the authorities had no choice but to close their airspace because of the lack of hard facts about aircraft behaviour in volcanic ash.
The April 14 decision by several European governments to close their airspace affected millions of would-be passengers around the world.
But the main hubs in the continent's flight networks expected to be running as normal Thursday.
Germany's Lufthansa, Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers, said it would fly at full capacity on Thursday by operating around 1,800 flights compared to the 700 it was able to run on Wednesday.
All long-haul passenger services from Paris' main international hub Charles de Gaulle were operating as scheduled, while Air France said it had flown 40,000 stranded people back home since Tuesday.
"Our traffic has returned to normal," a spokeswoman said.
And London Heathrow airport, the biggest and busiest in Europe, was going strong after reopening late Tuesday.
The only place in Britain still affected by the volcanic ash cloud was in the north, where the airspace over the remote Scottish isles of Orkney and Shetland were temporarily closed again due to still unsafe ash levels.
In Scandinavia, however, Denmark, Norway and Sweden lifted the last of their restrictions in a sign the worst of the threat had faded.
Some 450 British troops and 280 civilians stranded by the volcanic ash cloud finally made it back home Wednesday after a warship came to their rescue.
HMS Albion sailed into Portsmouth Naval Base on the southern English coast after a day-long crossing from Santander in northern Spain.
In Iceland, the civil protection agency said the volcano had lost nearly 80 percent of its intensity.
Einarsson, however, said the volcano had "not gone to sleep" and that it was impossible to predict when it would stop erupting.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Flights to Europe resume from Asia-Pacific
Europe-bound planes were leaving Asia-Pacific airports on schedule on Wednesday, as the region's airline industry estimated local carriers were losing 40 million dollars a day to the aerial lockdown.
Qantas and Singapore Airlines flights were due to take-off from Australia and New Zealand while Air China announced that all its Europe flights would also take to the skies.
Manila's only direct flight to Europe, a KLM service to Amsterdam, also left on schedule. Aircraft accelerating down runways marked what the industry hopes will be the end of an almost week-long lockdown caused by ash spewed from an Icelandic volcano.
Andrew Herdman, director-general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), said it was a "reasonable estimate" that Asia-Pacific airlines could lose 40 million dollars a day in revenue.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has estimated the loss for global airlines at 200 million euros (270 million dollars) a day.
Thousands of flights have been cancelled and hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded worldwide after European authorities designated much of the continent a no-fly zone due to ash clouds spewing from the volcano since last Wednesday.
But the first passengers among thousands stranded in Australia were due to fly out for Europe Wednesday afternoon, with a stopover in Asia. Air New Zealand planned three extra flights to help clear the backlog. "We hope to be getting passengers on flights from Australia this afternoon to make that connection with that flight to London," a Singapore Airlines spokeswoman told AFP. "We are resuming normal services as quickly as we can."
Flights to Europe were stopped from late Thursday as an ash cloud from the Icelandic eruption forced the closure of London's Heathrow and other European airports. The authorities fear the ash and dust could pose a danger to jet engines and airframes, but carriers worldwide have slammed the blanket shutout.
Qantas said it would resume services from Australia and Asia on Wednesday following the reopening of airspace across Europe.
"Qantas welcomes the opening of airspace and we will resume flights out of the UK to Australia today and from Asia to London and Frankfurt," chief executive Alan Joyce said.
"We are working on providing supplementary services to help clear the backlog and we will let our customers know as soon as possible," he said.
Qantas, which has seen as many as 10,000 passengers stranded by the airline chaos, said it was likely to take two to three weeks to clear the backlog.
Air New Zealand also said it planned to start resuming it services in and out of London from Wednesday.
New Zealand's national carrier said it plans three extra flights in the first 24 hours to try to start clearing the backlog of passengers.
Around 2,000 visitors to New Zealand have been stranded by the disruption to European services and 1,000 New Zealanders were reported to be stranded in Britain alone.
A Virgin Atlantic spokesman warned that European airspace may not stay open as the volcanic ash continues to threaten.
"Our 2:25 pm flight to London via Hong Kong is leaving. It's full to capacity," he said.
"I think our position is we're taking the opportunity while it exists."
Qantas and Singapore Airlines flights were due to take-off from Australia and New Zealand while Air China announced that all its Europe flights would also take to the skies.
Manila's only direct flight to Europe, a KLM service to Amsterdam, also left on schedule. Aircraft accelerating down runways marked what the industry hopes will be the end of an almost week-long lockdown caused by ash spewed from an Icelandic volcano.
Andrew Herdman, director-general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), said it was a "reasonable estimate" that Asia-Pacific airlines could lose 40 million dollars a day in revenue.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has estimated the loss for global airlines at 200 million euros (270 million dollars) a day.
Thousands of flights have been cancelled and hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded worldwide after European authorities designated much of the continent a no-fly zone due to ash clouds spewing from the volcano since last Wednesday.
But the first passengers among thousands stranded in Australia were due to fly out for Europe Wednesday afternoon, with a stopover in Asia. Air New Zealand planned three extra flights to help clear the backlog. "We hope to be getting passengers on flights from Australia this afternoon to make that connection with that flight to London," a Singapore Airlines spokeswoman told AFP. "We are resuming normal services as quickly as we can."
Flights to Europe were stopped from late Thursday as an ash cloud from the Icelandic eruption forced the closure of London's Heathrow and other European airports. The authorities fear the ash and dust could pose a danger to jet engines and airframes, but carriers worldwide have slammed the blanket shutout.
Qantas said it would resume services from Australia and Asia on Wednesday following the reopening of airspace across Europe.
"Qantas welcomes the opening of airspace and we will resume flights out of the UK to Australia today and from Asia to London and Frankfurt," chief executive Alan Joyce said.
"We are working on providing supplementary services to help clear the backlog and we will let our customers know as soon as possible," he said.
Qantas, which has seen as many as 10,000 passengers stranded by the airline chaos, said it was likely to take two to three weeks to clear the backlog.
Air New Zealand also said it planned to start resuming it services in and out of London from Wednesday.
New Zealand's national carrier said it plans three extra flights in the first 24 hours to try to start clearing the backlog of passengers.
Around 2,000 visitors to New Zealand have been stranded by the disruption to European services and 1,000 New Zealanders were reported to be stranded in Britain alone.
A Virgin Atlantic spokesman warned that European airspace may not stay open as the volcanic ash continues to threaten.
"Our 2:25 pm flight to London via Hong Kong is leaving. It's full to capacity," he said.
"I think our position is we're taking the opportunity while it exists."
230 Store Closings, 390 Store Openings
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) declared that March sales were the "best in 16 years." The L.A. Times said that "Pent-Up Demand Explodes for Retailers in March." CNNMoney announced that "super shoppers set records." With all those credible news sources screaming all those exuberant headlines, it's only logical to conclude that the U.S. retail industry must have been recovering, rebounding, rejuvenating, replenishing, and rebuilding the U.S. economy all at the same time in March.
All exuberant headlines aside, some clear-headed analysis of March's same store sales figures, in context with store closings and openings, unemployment numbers, and other underreported retail data tells the real story of the U.S. retail industry. In the real story, the plot is more complicated than the headlines suggest, and in the next chapter, as much as March figures were encouraging, the forecast for April is set up to be an equal disappointment.
According to the Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index, the 9.1% gain in same store sales in March was the biggest monthly gain since it began keeping records. Of that 9.1% year-over-year increase, six percentage points are attributed to an early Easter which motivated sales in the month of March, according to the ICSC. The record-breaking March sales figure is a comparison to the March 2009 index, which was down 5.0%, (excluding Wal-Mart (WMT) sales, which is today's norm). This is also on top of a March 2008 index decline of 2.1% (also excluding Wal-Mart).
Doing the math, 9.1%, take away 6 holiday percentage points, makes a 3.1% gain. A 3.1% gain on top of a 5.0% loss, on top of another 2.1% loss does not inspire as much euphoria as the headlines indicated we should all be feeling.
Basically, March stole sales from April, and April 2009 stole sales from March 2009, which is how the Easter dance goes each year. There will be no meaningful conclusions that can be made about retail recovery, rebound, rejuvenation, replenishment or economic rebuilding until April sales results come in and the two months are looked at together. And, so far, nobody is forecasting April sales to break any records, at least not any good records.
Even if overall March same store sales figures weren't as impressive as they seem to be on first impression, certainly there were some noteworthy individual chain results to be exuberant about, right?
Comparing the March 2009 same store sales with March 2010, it is obvious that a list filled with double-digit gains this year is preferable to a list full of double-digit losses last year. But once again, reason subdues the euphoria because same store sales is a year-over-year comparison, which means that unless you take both years into consideration, the figures have no meaning.
In March, 2009, only nine major retail chains managed to pull out a positive same store sales number. Besides these nine, every other gain this year is in comparison to a loss, and many of this year's headline writers seem to have forgotten how devastatingly large those March 2009 losses actually were.
It wasn't really difficult for Abercrombie & Fitch's (ANF) sales this year to best the 34.0% decline of March 2009. Nor was it a stretch for Neiman Marcus' sales numbers to look good compared to its 30.0% March, 2009 same store sales plummet. Saks' (SKS) 12.7% same store sales increase this year, was barely more than half of its 23.6% decline last March.
The March same store sale increases at American Eagle (AEO), Costco (COST), Zumiez (ZUMZ), Wet Seal (WTSLA), JC Penney (JCP), Stage Stores (SSI), and Dillard's (DDS) while positive this year, did not cover the losses that they posted in the same month last year. Their losses weren't recovered this year even with the holiday, warm weather, and pent-up demand that supposedly caused consumers to "come back from the dead," and sales to "surge" in March.
A look at a multi-year comparison of March same store sales provides even more perspective about the relativity of March's sales gains across the board for the U.S. retail industry.
Thinking logically, if retailers were unable to cover last year's losses in a perfect storm of positive conditions, what do we really expect they are going to be able to produce in a non-holiday April 2010 to compare with the Easter April of 2009? And when all four of those months are looked at together, do we really think we're going to be describing what we see as "explosive" or the "best in 16 years?"
Aren't we ever going to grow weary of the roller coaster ride of economic microanalysis and short-sighted predictions?
Certainly there were some same store sales winners in March, but most of them were not at the top of the list. Cato (CATO) is a chain that isn't generally seen as a U.S. retail industry pacesetter, so to find the conservative fashion retailer at the top of the same store sales figures list in March is definitely notable. Digging into its March history, though, reveals that Cato's March 2010 sales were just slightly higher than its 2005 sales, which diminishes the significance of the chain's March accomplishment.
Of the nine retailers that managed to eke out same store sales gains in 2009, three really stand out as no-excuses, consistent, positive performers this year.
Buckle (BKE) was at the top of the same store sales list in March, 2009, with a 14.7% increase. That March increase was on top of the 20.9% increase in March 2008, and a 10.7% increase in March, 2007. Buckle had the same holiday calendar, weather conditions, and economic pressures as every other retailer, and yet it still found a way to improve its performance for several challenging March's in a row. Although its March, 2010 same store sales increase was not a double digit and, therefore, was far from the top of the list this year, Buckle's year-over-year-over-year-over-year increases really are the most impressive of the month.
All exuberant headlines aside, some clear-headed analysis of March's same store sales figures, in context with store closings and openings, unemployment numbers, and other underreported retail data tells the real story of the U.S. retail industry. In the real story, the plot is more complicated than the headlines suggest, and in the next chapter, as much as March figures were encouraging, the forecast for April is set up to be an equal disappointment.
According to the Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index, the 9.1% gain in same store sales in March was the biggest monthly gain since it began keeping records. Of that 9.1% year-over-year increase, six percentage points are attributed to an early Easter which motivated sales in the month of March, according to the ICSC. The record-breaking March sales figure is a comparison to the March 2009 index, which was down 5.0%, (excluding Wal-Mart (WMT) sales, which is today's norm). This is also on top of a March 2008 index decline of 2.1% (also excluding Wal-Mart).
Doing the math, 9.1%, take away 6 holiday percentage points, makes a 3.1% gain. A 3.1% gain on top of a 5.0% loss, on top of another 2.1% loss does not inspire as much euphoria as the headlines indicated we should all be feeling.
Basically, March stole sales from April, and April 2009 stole sales from March 2009, which is how the Easter dance goes each year. There will be no meaningful conclusions that can be made about retail recovery, rebound, rejuvenation, replenishment or economic rebuilding until April sales results come in and the two months are looked at together. And, so far, nobody is forecasting April sales to break any records, at least not any good records.
Even if overall March same store sales figures weren't as impressive as they seem to be on first impression, certainly there were some noteworthy individual chain results to be exuberant about, right?
Comparing the March 2009 same store sales with March 2010, it is obvious that a list filled with double-digit gains this year is preferable to a list full of double-digit losses last year. But once again, reason subdues the euphoria because same store sales is a year-over-year comparison, which means that unless you take both years into consideration, the figures have no meaning.
In March, 2009, only nine major retail chains managed to pull out a positive same store sales number. Besides these nine, every other gain this year is in comparison to a loss, and many of this year's headline writers seem to have forgotten how devastatingly large those March 2009 losses actually were.
It wasn't really difficult for Abercrombie & Fitch's (ANF) sales this year to best the 34.0% decline of March 2009. Nor was it a stretch for Neiman Marcus' sales numbers to look good compared to its 30.0% March, 2009 same store sales plummet. Saks' (SKS) 12.7% same store sales increase this year, was barely more than half of its 23.6% decline last March.
The March same store sale increases at American Eagle (AEO), Costco (COST), Zumiez (ZUMZ), Wet Seal (WTSLA), JC Penney (JCP), Stage Stores (SSI), and Dillard's (DDS) while positive this year, did not cover the losses that they posted in the same month last year. Their losses weren't recovered this year even with the holiday, warm weather, and pent-up demand that supposedly caused consumers to "come back from the dead," and sales to "surge" in March.
A look at a multi-year comparison of March same store sales provides even more perspective about the relativity of March's sales gains across the board for the U.S. retail industry.
Thinking logically, if retailers were unable to cover last year's losses in a perfect storm of positive conditions, what do we really expect they are going to be able to produce in a non-holiday April 2010 to compare with the Easter April of 2009? And when all four of those months are looked at together, do we really think we're going to be describing what we see as "explosive" or the "best in 16 years?"
Aren't we ever going to grow weary of the roller coaster ride of economic microanalysis and short-sighted predictions?
Certainly there were some same store sales winners in March, but most of them were not at the top of the list. Cato (CATO) is a chain that isn't generally seen as a U.S. retail industry pacesetter, so to find the conservative fashion retailer at the top of the same store sales figures list in March is definitely notable. Digging into its March history, though, reveals that Cato's March 2010 sales were just slightly higher than its 2005 sales, which diminishes the significance of the chain's March accomplishment.
Of the nine retailers that managed to eke out same store sales gains in 2009, three really stand out as no-excuses, consistent, positive performers this year.
Buckle (BKE) was at the top of the same store sales list in March, 2009, with a 14.7% increase. That March increase was on top of the 20.9% increase in March 2008, and a 10.7% increase in March, 2007. Buckle had the same holiday calendar, weather conditions, and economic pressures as every other retailer, and yet it still found a way to improve its performance for several challenging March's in a row. Although its March, 2010 same store sales increase was not a double digit and, therefore, was far from the top of the list this year, Buckle's year-over-year-over-year-over-year increases really are the most impressive of the month.
Discovery on the way to Earth after visit to space station
The US space shuttle Discovery was on its way back to Earth early Monday after a successful supply mission to the International Space Station, leaving NASA's shuttle program with just three more flights.
The crew aims for touchdown at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida at 8:48 am (1248 GMT) with no threat from the huge ash cloud from an erupting Icelandic volcano that has shut down air traffic over Europe, the US space agency said.
Over a 14-day mission, Discovery's seven-member crew delivered nearly eight tons of scientific equipment and other supplies intended to fortify the orbiting science laboratory for operations beyond NASA's final shuttle launch.
Once the shuttles are retired, with Discovery's final flight on September 16, the United States will rely on Russia to take astronauts to the station until a new fleet of commercial space taxis is operational.
President Barack Obama reiterated this controversial policy during a visit to the shuttle's Florida landing site last week.
Monday's forecast at Cape Canaveral includes overcast skies and a chance of showers, but shuttle commander Alan Poindexter and his crew have a backup landing opportunity in Florida later in the morning at 10:23 am (1423 GMT).
The astronauts took power conservation measures Sunday in case the meteorological conditions delayed their return by a day.
"The weather situation is always fluid, and we will keep watching it," Mission Control in Houston told Discovery.
The shuttle is provisioned to remain in orbit until Wednesday if necessary, said Bryan Lunney, NASA's supervising flight director.
Monday's descent will follow a rare northwest to southeast course over the United States, leaving a glowing contrail visible to observers across several states should skies remain clear.
Discovery lifted off on April 5 and docked with the space station two days later, overcoming a communications antenna failure that crippled their rendezvous radar.
The linkup united 13 US, Russian and Japanese astronauts from the two craft for 10 days. Four were women, the highest number of females in space at any one time.
Over the course of three spacewalks, astronauts replaced a bulky external coolant tank. The ammonia reservoir circulates a coolant through outstretched radiators to disperse the heat generated by the station's internal electronics, including the life-support systems.
The science hardware delivered by Discovery included an Earth observations rack to hold cameras and spectral scanners for studies of the atmosphere, land forms, coastal areas as well as weather-induced crop damage.
Another new experiment will measure changes in muscle and joint health of astronauts during their long exposures to weightlessness, and a new freezer Discovery delivered will hold blood and other specimens collected for experiments.
During his April 15 visit to Kennedy, Obama made no mention of a shuttle program extension, disappointing some in Congress and those employed by the multi-billion-dollar space flight program.
At NASA, the looming reality that the United States will soon be unable to launch its own astronauts for the first time in three decades has begun to sink in.
"We're very excited about the future direction of human exploration in space," insisted Poindexter to reporters Sunday, saying the crew in space had been able to follow Obama's remarks last week.
"I'm sure that it's running through people's minds, but we are professionals and we are working really hard on the missions in front of us," Richard Jones, lead NASA flight director for the Discovery mission, said earlier in the day.
"As we get closer, that will be forefront on people's minds."
Discovery's pilot Jim Dutton, who was making his first and possibly last space flight, echoed the sentiments.
"I think everyone feels a little bittersweet," Dutton said. "We love the shuttle, but we have to press on into the future."
The crew aims for touchdown at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida at 8:48 am (1248 GMT) with no threat from the huge ash cloud from an erupting Icelandic volcano that has shut down air traffic over Europe, the US space agency said.
Over a 14-day mission, Discovery's seven-member crew delivered nearly eight tons of scientific equipment and other supplies intended to fortify the orbiting science laboratory for operations beyond NASA's final shuttle launch.
Once the shuttles are retired, with Discovery's final flight on September 16, the United States will rely on Russia to take astronauts to the station until a new fleet of commercial space taxis is operational.
President Barack Obama reiterated this controversial policy during a visit to the shuttle's Florida landing site last week.
Monday's forecast at Cape Canaveral includes overcast skies and a chance of showers, but shuttle commander Alan Poindexter and his crew have a backup landing opportunity in Florida later in the morning at 10:23 am (1423 GMT).
The astronauts took power conservation measures Sunday in case the meteorological conditions delayed their return by a day.
"The weather situation is always fluid, and we will keep watching it," Mission Control in Houston told Discovery.
The shuttle is provisioned to remain in orbit until Wednesday if necessary, said Bryan Lunney, NASA's supervising flight director.
Monday's descent will follow a rare northwest to southeast course over the United States, leaving a glowing contrail visible to observers across several states should skies remain clear.
Discovery lifted off on April 5 and docked with the space station two days later, overcoming a communications antenna failure that crippled their rendezvous radar.
The linkup united 13 US, Russian and Japanese astronauts from the two craft for 10 days. Four were women, the highest number of females in space at any one time.
Over the course of three spacewalks, astronauts replaced a bulky external coolant tank. The ammonia reservoir circulates a coolant through outstretched radiators to disperse the heat generated by the station's internal electronics, including the life-support systems.
The science hardware delivered by Discovery included an Earth observations rack to hold cameras and spectral scanners for studies of the atmosphere, land forms, coastal areas as well as weather-induced crop damage.
Another new experiment will measure changes in muscle and joint health of astronauts during their long exposures to weightlessness, and a new freezer Discovery delivered will hold blood and other specimens collected for experiments.
During his April 15 visit to Kennedy, Obama made no mention of a shuttle program extension, disappointing some in Congress and those employed by the multi-billion-dollar space flight program.
At NASA, the looming reality that the United States will soon be unable to launch its own astronauts for the first time in three decades has begun to sink in.
"We're very excited about the future direction of human exploration in space," insisted Poindexter to reporters Sunday, saying the crew in space had been able to follow Obama's remarks last week.
"I'm sure that it's running through people's minds, but we are professionals and we are working really hard on the missions in front of us," Richard Jones, lead NASA flight director for the Discovery mission, said earlier in the day.
"As we get closer, that will be forefront on people's minds."
Discovery's pilot Jim Dutton, who was making his first and possibly last space flight, echoed the sentiments.
"I think everyone feels a little bittersweet," Dutton said. "We love the shuttle, but we have to press on into the future."
China may face cotton supply shortage
China, the world's biggest cotton consumer, may face a domestic supply shortage on falling output and reduced international supplies, an analyst at state-backed CNCotton.com said. Domestic consumption may outstrip available supply by 3.5 million metric tons in the 2009-2010 marketing year ending Aug. 31, and supply will remain tight next year, Mei Yong, a director at the portal owned by China National Cotton Reserves Corp., said at an April 16 conference in Shandong.
China's double-digit economic growth is spurring textile consumption while cotton output last year shrank on reduced planting. Exports of products made with the fiber surged as textile buyers worldwide replenished inventories that had been depleted during the financial crisis, Mei said.
"China may need to import another 1 million tons" of cotton to bridge the gap, said Deng Jun, chief economist at Xinhu Futures Co. If China goes to the global market, it will further reduce projected low ending stocks in the U.S. and "U.S. cotton prices are very likely to surge" as funds won't let such a good investment opportunity pass, he said.
The most-active cotton contract in New York last traded at 80.75 cents a pound. Prices have gained 6.8 percent this year after surging 54 percent last year, the most since 1975.
Cotton for September delivery traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange may advance to more than 18,000 yuan ($2,637) a ton, or over 90 cents a pound for cotton traded in New York, Deng said. The contract settled at 16,790 yuan today.
New High
"Whether there is a shortage depends on how demand may play out going into August and September," said Dong Shuzhi, assistant general manager of Jinshi Futures Co., by phone from Shanghai today. It is possible that cotton may reach new high by August, he said.
Still, "much depends on the uncertain weather and economy, because unemployment in the U.S. remains high and unless global consumers start spending, exports may ''fizzle,'' he said.
Both Dong and Mei said this year's weather outlook so far for cotton planting isn't good because excessive rain and cold temperatures have caused delays.
This year may be ''a period of high cotton prices," Mei said, who along with Deng spoke at the conference, which was organized by Xinhu Futures.
China's cotton users currently have inventories that may last until July, Mei said, citing her firm's research.
Rising Demand
Yarn producers, who weave cotton into cloth, are racing to meet rising demand from apparel makers, said Liu Shuguang, a manager at Linyi Jinyuan Textile Trade Ltd. in Shandong, China's second-biggest cotton grower. "It's been a good year," he said.
Even if the government issues additional quotas, it is questionable buyers may be able to secure overseas supplies, Mei said. India, the biggest supplier so far in the current marketing year that began Sept. 1, has "basically closed its door" on China after it levied a 3 percent tax on cotton exports to ensure its own supply, she said.
The U.S., China's other big supplier, only has about 600,000 tons left for exports based on projected sales for the marketing year less what's already been sold, she said. West Africa, Uzbekistan and Brazil all have "little" output, while other Asian textile producers such as Pakistan and Bangladesh will compete "ferociously" for "limited global supply."
While it's possible the government may sell some of its reserves to boost supply, it will have little effect on the market because of its limited quantity, Mei said without saying how much the actual reserve is.
China's total exports of textile goods in the first quarter gained 15 percent from year ago to $39.2 billion, the National Development and Reform Commission said April 15, adding demand outlook may slow given uncertainty in global economic recovery.
Output of yarn, spun from cotton, gained 20 percent to 5.7 million tons in the first three months from a year ago while imports of cotton in the period gained threefold to 856,000 tons, it said.
China's double-digit economic growth is spurring textile consumption while cotton output last year shrank on reduced planting. Exports of products made with the fiber surged as textile buyers worldwide replenished inventories that had been depleted during the financial crisis, Mei said.
"China may need to import another 1 million tons" of cotton to bridge the gap, said Deng Jun, chief economist at Xinhu Futures Co. If China goes to the global market, it will further reduce projected low ending stocks in the U.S. and "U.S. cotton prices are very likely to surge" as funds won't let such a good investment opportunity pass, he said.
The most-active cotton contract in New York last traded at 80.75 cents a pound. Prices have gained 6.8 percent this year after surging 54 percent last year, the most since 1975.
Cotton for September delivery traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange may advance to more than 18,000 yuan ($2,637) a ton, or over 90 cents a pound for cotton traded in New York, Deng said. The contract settled at 16,790 yuan today.
New High
"Whether there is a shortage depends on how demand may play out going into August and September," said Dong Shuzhi, assistant general manager of Jinshi Futures Co., by phone from Shanghai today. It is possible that cotton may reach new high by August, he said.
Still, "much depends on the uncertain weather and economy, because unemployment in the U.S. remains high and unless global consumers start spending, exports may ''fizzle,'' he said.
Both Dong and Mei said this year's weather outlook so far for cotton planting isn't good because excessive rain and cold temperatures have caused delays.
This year may be ''a period of high cotton prices," Mei said, who along with Deng spoke at the conference, which was organized by Xinhu Futures.
China's cotton users currently have inventories that may last until July, Mei said, citing her firm's research.
Rising Demand
Yarn producers, who weave cotton into cloth, are racing to meet rising demand from apparel makers, said Liu Shuguang, a manager at Linyi Jinyuan Textile Trade Ltd. in Shandong, China's second-biggest cotton grower. "It's been a good year," he said.
Even if the government issues additional quotas, it is questionable buyers may be able to secure overseas supplies, Mei said. India, the biggest supplier so far in the current marketing year that began Sept. 1, has "basically closed its door" on China after it levied a 3 percent tax on cotton exports to ensure its own supply, she said.
The U.S., China's other big supplier, only has about 600,000 tons left for exports based on projected sales for the marketing year less what's already been sold, she said. West Africa, Uzbekistan and Brazil all have "little" output, while other Asian textile producers such as Pakistan and Bangladesh will compete "ferociously" for "limited global supply."
While it's possible the government may sell some of its reserves to boost supply, it will have little effect on the market because of its limited quantity, Mei said without saying how much the actual reserve is.
China's total exports of textile goods in the first quarter gained 15 percent from year ago to $39.2 billion, the National Development and Reform Commission said April 15, adding demand outlook may slow given uncertainty in global economic recovery.
Output of yarn, spun from cotton, gained 20 percent to 5.7 million tons in the first three months from a year ago while imports of cotton in the period gained threefold to 856,000 tons, it said.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Economy impact to rise sharply if ash lingers
The economic impact of the volcanic cloud halting flights across Europe will increase sharply the longer disruption continues, forcing holiday cancellations, delaying deliveries and reducing jet fuel demand.
African exporters of flowers and vegetables by air to European supermarkets, technology companies relying on "just-in-time" deliveries of components, event organisers and others could all feel the pinch.
Economists say so far they have not changed their models or predictions for European growth, hoping normal service could resume this week. But in a worst-case scenario in which the ash cloud closes European airspace for months, one economist estimates lost travel and tourism revenue alone could knock 1-2 percentage points off regional growth as long as it lasts. European growth had been predicted at 1-1.5 percent for 2010.
"That would mean a lot of European countries wouldn't get any growth this year," said Vanessa Rossi, senior economic fellow at Chatham House. "It would literally stifle the recovery. But the problem is it is incredibly hard to predict what will happen. Even the geologists can't tell us."
The event is a classic example of a "Black Swan", a totally unexpected event with widespread impact, impossible to predict and hard to model.
The key questions now are whether the volcano keeps erupting and spewing ash into the atmosphere, where the wind takes the ash and how long the ash already in the sky remains over Europe.
Vulcanologists and meteorologists say they cannot immediately answer those questions as volcanoes are particularly unpredictable. They warn the last time the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier erupted, it lasted more than a year. But it may not continue to spew ash for the entire eruption.
Most had originally expected the cloud and disruption would linger over Europe for several days.
Travel and tourism accounts for around five percent of global gross domestic product -- some $3 trillion -- with Europe accounting for a third of that, much of it accruing over the summer months. Not all of this will be lost, but Rossi estimated a prolonged shutdown could cost up to $5-10 billion dollars a week in the industry.
But the impact will likely be wider. Most of the world's goods by volume may move by sea and land, but transport analysts estimate 40 percent by value moves by air.
NO "JUST-IN-TIME"
The world's biggest air freight operators say they are moving what they can by road and looking at contingency plans of using southern European airports that are outside the cloud. But they say deliveries will be sharply affected.
"If your just-in-time operation is depending on parts that come from Asia or the US or Africa or the Mideast, you just can't get it," said United Parcel Service Inc spokesman Norman Black.
"DHL and UPS use airhubs in Germany, Fedex Corp relies on an airhub in France and all that airspace is closed. There's just not an option right at the moment while we all wait and see how long this is going to take."
Pharmaceutical firms are heavy users of air freight, but most said on Friday they had enough stocks to avoid a short-term crunch. Last-minute high-tech imports between Asia and the United States are flown over the Pacific and will be unaffected, but European firms may feel the pinch.
Most food and beverage deliveries move by sea, but some premium products such as the finest Scotch whiskeys retailing at hundreds of dollars a bottle in China or Japan can no longer be moved.
That could mean the most vulnerable national economies to the shutdown could prove to be African producers of fruit and flowers that will swiftly perish if not shipped to market.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates airlines are losing $200 million a day from the shutdown, which has caused chaos well beyond the immediate European airspace closed. Most airlines will be uninsured for this loss, although insurer Munich Re said on Friday it would consider offering cancellation insurance in future should the crisis produce demand.
African exporters of flowers and vegetables by air to European supermarkets, technology companies relying on "just-in-time" deliveries of components, event organisers and others could all feel the pinch.
Economists say so far they have not changed their models or predictions for European growth, hoping normal service could resume this week. But in a worst-case scenario in which the ash cloud closes European airspace for months, one economist estimates lost travel and tourism revenue alone could knock 1-2 percentage points off regional growth as long as it lasts. European growth had been predicted at 1-1.5 percent for 2010.
"That would mean a lot of European countries wouldn't get any growth this year," said Vanessa Rossi, senior economic fellow at Chatham House. "It would literally stifle the recovery. But the problem is it is incredibly hard to predict what will happen. Even the geologists can't tell us."
The event is a classic example of a "Black Swan", a totally unexpected event with widespread impact, impossible to predict and hard to model.
The key questions now are whether the volcano keeps erupting and spewing ash into the atmosphere, where the wind takes the ash and how long the ash already in the sky remains over Europe.
Vulcanologists and meteorologists say they cannot immediately answer those questions as volcanoes are particularly unpredictable. They warn the last time the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier erupted, it lasted more than a year. But it may not continue to spew ash for the entire eruption.
Most had originally expected the cloud and disruption would linger over Europe for several days.
Travel and tourism accounts for around five percent of global gross domestic product -- some $3 trillion -- with Europe accounting for a third of that, much of it accruing over the summer months. Not all of this will be lost, but Rossi estimated a prolonged shutdown could cost up to $5-10 billion dollars a week in the industry.
But the impact will likely be wider. Most of the world's goods by volume may move by sea and land, but transport analysts estimate 40 percent by value moves by air.
NO "JUST-IN-TIME"
The world's biggest air freight operators say they are moving what they can by road and looking at contingency plans of using southern European airports that are outside the cloud. But they say deliveries will be sharply affected.
"If your just-in-time operation is depending on parts that come from Asia or the US or Africa or the Mideast, you just can't get it," said United Parcel Service Inc spokesman Norman Black.
"DHL and UPS use airhubs in Germany, Fedex Corp relies on an airhub in France and all that airspace is closed. There's just not an option right at the moment while we all wait and see how long this is going to take."
Pharmaceutical firms are heavy users of air freight, but most said on Friday they had enough stocks to avoid a short-term crunch. Last-minute high-tech imports between Asia and the United States are flown over the Pacific and will be unaffected, but European firms may feel the pinch.
Most food and beverage deliveries move by sea, but some premium products such as the finest Scotch whiskeys retailing at hundreds of dollars a bottle in China or Japan can no longer be moved.
That could mean the most vulnerable national economies to the shutdown could prove to be African producers of fruit and flowers that will swiftly perish if not shipped to market.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates airlines are losing $200 million a day from the shutdown, which has caused chaos well beyond the immediate European airspace closed. Most airlines will be uninsured for this loss, although insurer Munich Re said on Friday it would consider offering cancellation insurance in future should the crisis produce demand.
How not to raise a bully: the early roots of empathy
Since the Jan. 14 death of Phoebe Prince, the 15-year-old in South Hadley, Mass., who committed suicide after being bullied by fellow students, many onlookers have meditated on whether the circumstances that led to her after-school hanging might have been avoided.
Could teachers have stepped in and stopped the bullying? Could parents have done more to curtail bad behavior? Or could preventive measures have been started years ago, in early childhood, long before bullies emerged and started heaping abuse on their peers?
Increasingly, neuroscientists, psychologists and educators believe that bullying and other kinds of violence can indeed be reduced by encouraging empathy at an early age. Over the past decade, research in empathy - the ability to put ourselves in another person's shoes - has suggested that it is key, if not the key, to all human social interaction and morality.
Without empathy, we would have no cohesive society, no trust and no reason not to murder, cheat, steal or lie. At best, we would act only out of self-interest; at worst, we would be a collection of sociopaths.
Although human nature has historically been seen as essentially selfish, recent science suggests that it is not. The capacity for empathy is believed to be innate in most humans, as well as some other species - chimps, for instance, will protest unfair treatment of others, refusing to accept a treat they have rightfully earned if another chimp doing the same work fails to get the same reward.
The first stirrings of human empathy typically appear in babyhood: newborns cry when hearing another infant's cry, and studies have shown that children as young as 14 months offer unsolicited help to adults who appear to be struggling to reach something. Babies have also shown a distinct preference for adults who help rather than hinder others.
But, like language, the development of this inherent tendency may be affected by early experience. As evidence, look no further than ancient Greece - at the millennia-old child-rearing practices of Sparta and Athens. Spartans, who were celebrated almost exclusively as warriors, raised their ruling-class boys in an environment of uncompromising brutality - enlisting them in boot camp at age 7, and starving them to encourage enough deviousness and cunning to steal food - which skillfully bred yet more generations of ruthless killers.
In Athens, future leaders were brought up in a more nurturing and peaceful way, at home with their mothers and nurses, starting education in music and poetry at 6. They became pioneers of democracy, art, theater and culture. "Just like we can train people to kill, the same is true with empathy. You can be taught to be a Spartan or an Athenian - and you can taught to be both," says Teny Gross, executive director of the outreach group Institute for the Study and Practice of Nonviolence in Providence, R.I., and a former sergeant in the Israeli army.
What the ancient Greeks intuited is supported by research today. Childhood - as early as infancy - is now known to be a critical time for the development of empathy. And although children can be astonishingly resilient, surviving and sometimes thriving despite abuse and neglect, studies show that those who experience such early trauma are at much greater risk of becoming aggressive or even psychopathic later on, bullying other children or being victimized by bullies themselves.
Simple neglect can be surprisingly damaging. In 2007, researchers published the first randomized, controlled study of the effect of being raised in an orphanage; that study, and subsequent research on the same sample of Romanian orphans, found that compared with babies placed with a foster family, those who were sent to institutions had lower IQs, slower physical growth, problems with human attachment and differences in functioning in brain areas related to emotional development.
Institutionalized infants do not experience being the center of a loving family's attention; instead, they are cared for a rotating staff of shift workers, which is inherently neglectful. Such children miss out on intensive, one-on-one affection and attachment with a parental figure, which babies need at that vulnerable age. Without that experience, they learn early on that the world is a cold, insecure and untrustworthy place. Their emotional needs having gone unmet, they frequently have trouble understanding or appreciating the feelings of others.
Nearly 90% of brain growth takes place in the first five years of life, and the minds of young children who have been neglected or traumatized often fail to make the connection between people and pleasure. That deficit can make it difficult for them to feel or demonstrate love later on. "You can enhance empathy by the way you treat children," says Martin Hoffman, an emeritus professor of psychology at New York University and a pioneer of empathy research, "or you can kill it by providing a harsh punitive environment."
Discipline, but Don't Punish?
The cold environment of an orphanage can be considered on a spectrum of punishment, at the other end of which is simple child discipline - an issue that sometimes confounds even the most mindful parents. How do you teach a child right from wrong without being too tough, or slipping into abuse? Who among us has not raised our voice - O.K., screamed - while disciplining our children?
But shouting at or, worse, hitting a child results in fear, rather than an understanding on the child's part of why he or she is being punished, say researchers. Over the long term, the routine use of corporal punishment, such as spanking, not only fails to change behavior for the better, but has also been shown to increase aggression in children.
"Instead of starting from the assumption that you have to beat the badness out of a child, turn on that empathy and compassion switch," says Dacher Keltner, professor of psychology at the University of California, Berkeley, and author of Born to Be Good: The Science of a Meaningful Life.
In other words, start by teaching children to understand their own behavior and feelings - it provides the basic tools for understanding the behavior and feelings of others. For instance, when dealing with a child who has hurt another person, help him or her "anchor how they felt in the moment," says Mary Gordon, founder of Roots of Empathy, a school-based program designed to foster compassion. "We always think we should start with, 'How do you think so-and-so felt?' But you will be more successful if you start with, 'You must have felt very upset.' The trick is to help children describe how they felt, so that the next time this happens, they've got language. Now, they can say 'I'm feeling like I did when I bit Johnny.'"
In Gordon's Roots of Empathy program, which is currently being used in about 3,000 kindergartens, elementary schools and middle schools in Canada, and 40 schools in Seattle, children get to see a visiting parent and infant interact in the classroom about once a month, and watch the foundations of empathy being built. When the baby cries, the Roots of Empathy instructor helps the mother and students think about what might be bothering the baby and how to make things better.
Students are taught that a crying baby isn't a bad baby, but a baby with a problem. By trying to figure out what's going on, the children learn to see the world through the infant's eyes, and to understand what it might be like to have needs but not be able to express them clearly.
"We love when we get a colicky baby," says Gordon, because then the mother usually tells the class how frustrating and annoying it is when the baby won't stop crying. That gives children insight into the parent's perspective - and how children's behavior can affect adults - something they have often never thought about. "If you look at the development of empathy, one of the key features is perspective-taking," says Gordon. "In coaching that skill, we help them [take the perspective of] their classmates."
To date, nine separate studies have shown that Roots of Empathy has helped reduce bullying at school, and increased supportive behavior among students. Many school districts in the U.S., including New York City's, have recently expressed interest in using Gordon's approach.
Setting an Empathetic Example
Her own family was a shining example. As a young girl in Newfoundland, Gordon says she grew up in a large, multigenerational family - including four siblings, two grandparents and a mentally disabled uncle - that also often included "strays." Her parents liked to take in people in need: unmarried pregnant women who had no place to go, recently released prisoners who would stop by for a free meal. Gordon also tagged along with her mother, an artist (Gordon's father was the Canadian minister of labor), as she visited poor families in the community, bringing them food, clothing and coal for heat.
When young Mary sneered and asked why a woman stored coal in her bathtub instead of bathing in it, her mother admonished her - but in private. "My mom would never embarrass anyone, so she wouldn't embarrass me as a child either. She saw the dignity in everybody," Gordon says. "In the car, she said, 'You judged that woman when you made that face.' She would say, 'She's made the best decisions she could with the challenges she has, and you don't know her challenges.'"
Not every child is raised by a Mother Gordon. But even children who have survived rough environments - like the gang members Teny Gross of the Institute for the Study and Practice of Nonviolence works with in Providence - can be helped to "catch" empathy.
Gross has found that his outreach workers are most successful when they build relationships based on caring and fairness. "People have a sense of justice," Gross says, explaining why even troubled teens respond well when counselors, with whom they have an ongoing relationship, take a firm stance with them regarding their behavior. "[Our kids are] used to injustice; they're used to abuse at school and from the police. But when constraints come from a place of love and caring, people don't think it violates their sense of justice.
Gross's program focuses on introducing young men and boys in gangs to a new network of people who not only care about them, but do so dependably - providing the kind of secure environment that many of them missed in childhood. By employing former gang members to mentor the troubled boys, Gross makes it easier for them to foster relationships of mutual understanding and connection with one another. Mentors show up consistently at the boys' important events - court dates, funerals - demonstrating care and concern. They also organize social outings for the boys, like a trip to a local beach last summer for a day of surfing. That excursion purposefully included boys from rival gangs, in the hopes that the introductions could help reduce violence later on.
Could teachers have stepped in and stopped the bullying? Could parents have done more to curtail bad behavior? Or could preventive measures have been started years ago, in early childhood, long before bullies emerged and started heaping abuse on their peers?
Increasingly, neuroscientists, psychologists and educators believe that bullying and other kinds of violence can indeed be reduced by encouraging empathy at an early age. Over the past decade, research in empathy - the ability to put ourselves in another person's shoes - has suggested that it is key, if not the key, to all human social interaction and morality.
Without empathy, we would have no cohesive society, no trust and no reason not to murder, cheat, steal or lie. At best, we would act only out of self-interest; at worst, we would be a collection of sociopaths.
Although human nature has historically been seen as essentially selfish, recent science suggests that it is not. The capacity for empathy is believed to be innate in most humans, as well as some other species - chimps, for instance, will protest unfair treatment of others, refusing to accept a treat they have rightfully earned if another chimp doing the same work fails to get the same reward.
The first stirrings of human empathy typically appear in babyhood: newborns cry when hearing another infant's cry, and studies have shown that children as young as 14 months offer unsolicited help to adults who appear to be struggling to reach something. Babies have also shown a distinct preference for adults who help rather than hinder others.
But, like language, the development of this inherent tendency may be affected by early experience. As evidence, look no further than ancient Greece - at the millennia-old child-rearing practices of Sparta and Athens. Spartans, who were celebrated almost exclusively as warriors, raised their ruling-class boys in an environment of uncompromising brutality - enlisting them in boot camp at age 7, and starving them to encourage enough deviousness and cunning to steal food - which skillfully bred yet more generations of ruthless killers.
In Athens, future leaders were brought up in a more nurturing and peaceful way, at home with their mothers and nurses, starting education in music and poetry at 6. They became pioneers of democracy, art, theater and culture. "Just like we can train people to kill, the same is true with empathy. You can be taught to be a Spartan or an Athenian - and you can taught to be both," says Teny Gross, executive director of the outreach group Institute for the Study and Practice of Nonviolence in Providence, R.I., and a former sergeant in the Israeli army.
What the ancient Greeks intuited is supported by research today. Childhood - as early as infancy - is now known to be a critical time for the development of empathy. And although children can be astonishingly resilient, surviving and sometimes thriving despite abuse and neglect, studies show that those who experience such early trauma are at much greater risk of becoming aggressive or even psychopathic later on, bullying other children or being victimized by bullies themselves.
Simple neglect can be surprisingly damaging. In 2007, researchers published the first randomized, controlled study of the effect of being raised in an orphanage; that study, and subsequent research on the same sample of Romanian orphans, found that compared with babies placed with a foster family, those who were sent to institutions had lower IQs, slower physical growth, problems with human attachment and differences in functioning in brain areas related to emotional development.
Institutionalized infants do not experience being the center of a loving family's attention; instead, they are cared for a rotating staff of shift workers, which is inherently neglectful. Such children miss out on intensive, one-on-one affection and attachment with a parental figure, which babies need at that vulnerable age. Without that experience, they learn early on that the world is a cold, insecure and untrustworthy place. Their emotional needs having gone unmet, they frequently have trouble understanding or appreciating the feelings of others.
Nearly 90% of brain growth takes place in the first five years of life, and the minds of young children who have been neglected or traumatized often fail to make the connection between people and pleasure. That deficit can make it difficult for them to feel or demonstrate love later on. "You can enhance empathy by the way you treat children," says Martin Hoffman, an emeritus professor of psychology at New York University and a pioneer of empathy research, "or you can kill it by providing a harsh punitive environment."
Discipline, but Don't Punish?
The cold environment of an orphanage can be considered on a spectrum of punishment, at the other end of which is simple child discipline - an issue that sometimes confounds even the most mindful parents. How do you teach a child right from wrong without being too tough, or slipping into abuse? Who among us has not raised our voice - O.K., screamed - while disciplining our children?
But shouting at or, worse, hitting a child results in fear, rather than an understanding on the child's part of why he or she is being punished, say researchers. Over the long term, the routine use of corporal punishment, such as spanking, not only fails to change behavior for the better, but has also been shown to increase aggression in children.
"Instead of starting from the assumption that you have to beat the badness out of a child, turn on that empathy and compassion switch," says Dacher Keltner, professor of psychology at the University of California, Berkeley, and author of Born to Be Good: The Science of a Meaningful Life.
In other words, start by teaching children to understand their own behavior and feelings - it provides the basic tools for understanding the behavior and feelings of others. For instance, when dealing with a child who has hurt another person, help him or her "anchor how they felt in the moment," says Mary Gordon, founder of Roots of Empathy, a school-based program designed to foster compassion. "We always think we should start with, 'How do you think so-and-so felt?' But you will be more successful if you start with, 'You must have felt very upset.' The trick is to help children describe how they felt, so that the next time this happens, they've got language. Now, they can say 'I'm feeling like I did when I bit Johnny.'"
In Gordon's Roots of Empathy program, which is currently being used in about 3,000 kindergartens, elementary schools and middle schools in Canada, and 40 schools in Seattle, children get to see a visiting parent and infant interact in the classroom about once a month, and watch the foundations of empathy being built. When the baby cries, the Roots of Empathy instructor helps the mother and students think about what might be bothering the baby and how to make things better.
Students are taught that a crying baby isn't a bad baby, but a baby with a problem. By trying to figure out what's going on, the children learn to see the world through the infant's eyes, and to understand what it might be like to have needs but not be able to express them clearly.
"We love when we get a colicky baby," says Gordon, because then the mother usually tells the class how frustrating and annoying it is when the baby won't stop crying. That gives children insight into the parent's perspective - and how children's behavior can affect adults - something they have often never thought about. "If you look at the development of empathy, one of the key features is perspective-taking," says Gordon. "In coaching that skill, we help them [take the perspective of] their classmates."
To date, nine separate studies have shown that Roots of Empathy has helped reduce bullying at school, and increased supportive behavior among students. Many school districts in the U.S., including New York City's, have recently expressed interest in using Gordon's approach.
Setting an Empathetic Example
Her own family was a shining example. As a young girl in Newfoundland, Gordon says she grew up in a large, multigenerational family - including four siblings, two grandparents and a mentally disabled uncle - that also often included "strays." Her parents liked to take in people in need: unmarried pregnant women who had no place to go, recently released prisoners who would stop by for a free meal. Gordon also tagged along with her mother, an artist (Gordon's father was the Canadian minister of labor), as she visited poor families in the community, bringing them food, clothing and coal for heat.
When young Mary sneered and asked why a woman stored coal in her bathtub instead of bathing in it, her mother admonished her - but in private. "My mom would never embarrass anyone, so she wouldn't embarrass me as a child either. She saw the dignity in everybody," Gordon says. "In the car, she said, 'You judged that woman when you made that face.' She would say, 'She's made the best decisions she could with the challenges she has, and you don't know her challenges.'"
Not every child is raised by a Mother Gordon. But even children who have survived rough environments - like the gang members Teny Gross of the Institute for the Study and Practice of Nonviolence works with in Providence - can be helped to "catch" empathy.
Gross has found that his outreach workers are most successful when they build relationships based on caring and fairness. "People have a sense of justice," Gross says, explaining why even troubled teens respond well when counselors, with whom they have an ongoing relationship, take a firm stance with them regarding their behavior. "[Our kids are] used to injustice; they're used to abuse at school and from the police. But when constraints come from a place of love and caring, people don't think it violates their sense of justice.
Gross's program focuses on introducing young men and boys in gangs to a new network of people who not only care about them, but do so dependably - providing the kind of secure environment that many of them missed in childhood. By employing former gang members to mentor the troubled boys, Gross makes it easier for them to foster relationships of mutual understanding and connection with one another. Mentors show up consistently at the boys' important events - court dates, funerals - demonstrating care and concern. They also organize social outings for the boys, like a trip to a local beach last summer for a day of surfing. That excursion purposefully included boys from rival gangs, in the hopes that the introductions could help reduce violence later on.
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